Real Estate: Second Quarter 2019 Sales and Inventory

Last time, I took a first look at second-quarter pricing in Wilton Manors, and showed that adjusting sale prices per the factor method discussed in previous columns moderated the price increase relative to 2Q18.  

This time, a brief look at sales counts and inventory trends. 

First, sales. Per MLS, there were 47 closed sales of single-family homes in the Island City in the second quarter of 2019. This was a six-percent decrease from the same quarter in the previous year, and a 28-percent decrease from 2Q17.

As I have noted in previous columns, I believe it is best to consider sales on a rolling four-quarter basis, to account for seasonality. That’s what the sales bar chart here indicates. There were 180 closed sales in the four quarters ended June 30, 2019. That’s a four-percent decrease from 2Q18, and an eight-percent drop from two years ago. You can also see in the chart that from the peak in the first-quarter of 2017, four-quarter sales have decreased by 11 percent.

So, sales are definitely slowing a bit. 

Now, for inventory. I’ve also discussed in previous columns my frustration with the “official” inventory numbers, which I think are optimistic. As I result, I developed my own proprietary methodology based on my former career in Insurance Actuary-Land. 

Take a look at the inventory chart here. The line indicates the monthly inventory trend for single-family homes in WilMa going back two years. Pay attention also to the lightly-shaded area. As long as the line stays within that shaded area, I would consider the inventory level as “balanced” - favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Above the shaded area would indicate elevated inventory, and thus more of a buyer’s advantage. Contrariwise, below the shaded area would indicate a tight inventory situation that would generally favor sellers.

In other words, we are seeing fewer homes on the market as sales activity has cooled – which is keeping total inventory in balance.

James Oaksun, Florida's Real Estate Geek(SM), is Broker-Owner of New Realty Concepts in Fort Lauderdale. In addition to having degrees from Dartmouth and Cornell, he is a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (GRI).


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