As promised, in this column I want to discuss what I have found about single family home inventory trends here in the Island City. All this and more will be in my 2016 Broward’s Real Estate Yearbook, available soon. But as an exclusive to my SFGN and WMG readers, I am sharing the Wilton Manors excerpts with you first.
The first thing I have to note is that I use a more expansive and differently calculated number than some (all, probably) of my Realtor brethren. The explanation would require more space than this column. Short version – in considering smaller geographic areas I think a different technique is needed, and there are things I have learned in crawling around in the data and through my own experiences in the market that I believe make my calculation more realistic.
The “rule of thumb” you often hear in real estate is that a “balanced” market has enough inventory for six to 12 months of sales. More than 12 months of inventory is considered a “buyers market,” and less than six months is considered a “sellers market.” Like most rules of thumb, however, I have yet to find any source material or research that analytically proves this statistic.
But I digress. Let’s accept the rule of thumb for now, and you can see from the charts that the three WilMa neighborhoods have, generally, been in a balanced inventory situation in recent years, with some notable exceptions.
As the market recovered from its trough in mid-2011, inventories generally got stretched thin by the end of the 2012-13 high season. As one would expect with strong price performance, though, properties came onto the market to meet the demand for 2013-14. An expected continuation of strong pricing into the 2014-15 high season did not materialize.
So far this year, inventories have been lowest east of Dixie, not quite to being a sellers market, but close. The notable situation this past high season was in West Wilton, where sales activity fell off the map and inventories were very high – a classic buyers market.
James Oaksun, Broward's Real Estate Geek(SM), is Broker-Owner of New Realty Concepts in Oakland Park. In addition to having degrees from Dartmouth and Cornell, he is a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (GRI).