WilMa Sales: Have They Peaked, Too?

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They might still be counting votes in California, and the Broward election supervisor doesn’t appear to have found those missing 2,000 ballots yet, but the numbers are all in on the real estate activity that’ll be part of my Yearbook this year. 

Every year I look at pricing, sales, and inventory trends across specific neighborhoods (not zip codes) of interest to me, to my clients, and to the community at large. It’s free and you can see the prior versions at www.issuu.com/JamesOaksun.

Having addressed Island City price trends in my last column, this time we shall look at sales volume. We’ll wrap up the review in my forthcoming column with a treatise on inventory.

As I did with the pricing column, the table included here shows single family home sales trends for the three WilMa neighborhoods – West (meaning west of Andrews), Center (Andrews to Dixie), and East (east of Dixie). Also, when I look at sales here in south Florida, I always consider them on a rolling 12-month basis. Due to significant seasonality, you can’t make valid comparisons with the immediately-prior periods without doing that. 

Although I don’t show it here, aggregate single-family home sales in the Island City peaked in late 2015 and have been roughly flat ever since at roughly 200 homes (plus or minus a bit) per 12-month period. In volume, that’s about double what we saw at the market trough in 2011. 

Now, there has been a 10-percent drop in aggregate sales over the last two quarters – from the top end of the range to the bottom. It’s definitely a cautionary note of a sort as we head into season. Fourth-quarter data will be critical in further assessment. 

The data show some significant variability among the three neighborhoods. You can never predict exactly when homes will come onto the market, as that is a decision with many moving parts in it. But there can be instances where buyers who insist on living in WilMa might not be totally committed to one neighborhood versus another, particularly if a home is available that meets their needs.

Next time: inventory.

 

James Oaksun, Florida's Real Estate Geek(SM), is Broker-Owner of New Realty Concepts in Oakland Park. In addition to having degrees from Dartmouth and Cornell, he is a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (GRI).


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