WilMa Prices: Have We Seen The Peak?

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Via @Bren0gfox

With the 2018 elections behind us (probably), that means High Season is here, the holidays are coming right up, and the Fourth Edition of my South Florida Real Estate Yearbook is well into production.

Every year I look at pricing, sales, and inventory trends across specific neighborhoods (not zip codes) of interest to me, to my clients, and to the community at large. It’s free and you can see the prior versions at www.issuu.com/JamesOaksun.

But before the whole book is ready, I always give my loyal readers a taste of what is coming with respect to the Island City. I start with pricing (as that is what always comes up first from both buyers and sellers), and then address sales and inventory in the next two columns.

The table included here shows pricing trends for the three WilMa neighborhoods – West (meaning west of Andrews), Center (Andrews to Dixie), and East (east of Dixie). I have also included percent change from the same period last year, and the compounded annual change from 3Q11 (about when prices began their ascent after the crash).

Note two important facts here.  First, many people who had the wisdom (or perhaps luck) to buy in Wilton in 2011 have made a lot of money. The compound annual return since 2011 for the three neighborhoods has been eight percent, nine percent, and 11 percent, respectively.

But there is another, perhaps sobering, fact.

We now see some evidence that prices for single family homes in West and Center Wilton may have reached their cycle highs. Prices in both neighborhoods are down versus one year ago. While it may be too soon to say whether this is a trend, it indicates a need for caution.

Conversely, prices in East Wilton remain strong, and are rising through September.

I noted in the introduction to last year’s Yearbook that no asset class increases in price by a double-digit percent per year, year after year, forever. The quest for value, and for realistic expectations, should now be in progress.

 

James Oaksun, Florida's Real Estate Geek(SM), is Broker-Owner of New Realty Concepts in Oakland Park. In addition to having degrees from Dartmouth and Cornell, he is a Graduate of the Realtor Institute (GRI).


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